Colours assess forecast reliability and exposure. A larger pipeline or a positive forecast gap alone does not establish favourable performance.
Executive commentary
Generated from this dashboard's measured and modelled KPIsCumulative Q4 delivery: forecast range
EUR millions · cumulative at month end
Forecast range tables
Cumulative from 1 October 2026
Revenue in each month
Where is the forecast coming from?
Open opportunities with a positive Q4 workday allocation. Group totals reconcile to the executive summary.
Pipeline funnel by sales stage
Nested curved funnel · stage width proportional to EUR value · stage composition, not historical conversion
All stages shown.
Gross, probability weighted and standard weighted layers use a common EUR scale. Both weighted boundaries remain visible where their values cross. The silhouette may widen at later stages because it follows the actual pipeline composition. Hover for values; click a stage to highlight it. SVG export contains vector artwork.
Forecast by region
Probability weighted · EUR millions · descending
Forecast by business offering
Probability weighted · EUR millions · descending
Business offering uses the workbook's service_line field; a separate business unit field is not supplied.
Owner pipeline by sales stage
Bubble area: probability weighted EUR · colour: win probability · owners ranked by forecast
Click a bubble to highlight its owner.
All owners shown. Win probability is gross-pipeline-weighted; lines show composition. Tiny bubbles have a 4px visibility floor.
How believable is the current forecast?
Simulated Q4 delivery uses assigned probabilities, supplied historic win rates and an explicit delivery-delay scenario.
Simulated Q4 revenue distribution
Revenue: EUR millions · density per EUR million
P10 is the lower 10th percentile; P90 is the upper 90th percentile. Only about 10% of simulated outcomes exceed P90. These are modelled outcomes, not a validated statistical guarantee.
Monte Carlo confidence gauge
Forecast confidence score · heuristic reliability index, 0–100
The gauge combines five forecast risk inputs. It is separate from the simulated probability of reaching the forecast.
Forecast distribution by sales stage
Simulated Q4 revenue contribution · EUR millions
Each violin shows the stage's total simulated contribution, with median and interquartile range. Width is normalised within each stage; smoothing includes zero outcomes. Full zero-outcome shares appear on focus or hover.
What could prevent delivery of the forecast?
Revenue exposure, delivery dependencies and the opportunities requiring attention.
Forecast risk waterfall
EUR millions · current weighted forecast to model expected outcome
Forecast dependency wheel
Share of probability weighted forecast · hover a deal for its owner and value
Top 3 and Top 5 are cumulative shares. Wheel segments represent individual opportunities. Click a segment to locate that deal in the watchlist.
Forecast watchlist
Probability weighted Q4 revenue exposed · click a column heading to sort
One row per opportunity; exposure is its full weighted Q4 forecast, not an estimated loss. Risk categories overlap. Status denotes modelled severity, not CRM action progress. Update age is measured at the Salesforce snapshot.
Risk definitions and severity thresholds
How exposed is the forecast to currency movements?
FX tornado
Change in source probability weighted forecast · EUR millions
Each currency is shocked independently. For an ECB quote of currency units per €1, EUR strengthening raises the quote and reduces EUR revenue: base ÷ (1 + shock). EUR weakening uses base ÷ (1 − shock). EUR deals are unchanged; no hedge data is supplied.
Which deals need attention first?
Priorities combine modelled shortfall and the source risk flags. They support management review, with named owners and next steps.
Executive watchlist
EUR thousands · top 10 deals by shortfall × (1 + priority / 100)
Impact is max(current probability forecast − model expectation, 0). Recommendations are rules generated from recorded risks; interventions require owner judgement.
Action priority matrix
X: action priority index, 0–100 · Y: modelled shortfall to current forecast, EUR millions
Priority = 25 points for each risk flag, plus 25 × non-delivery likelihood, capped at 100. Flags: ≥40% slippage; record older than 30 days; assigned probability > historic by 10pp; deal ≥10% of current forecast. Lines: priority 60 and median shortfall.
How the forecast is calculated
Source measures, scenario choices and quality checks remain visible for board review.
ECB FX lookup supplied in the workbook
Rates per €1 and EUR multiplier
Inspect Q4 opportunity inputs and calculations
Monetary columns: EUR thousands. Probabilities shown as percentages. Source row points to Analysis.